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More recently, a particular form of wheeled transport, the railroad,
has developed. Starting with Stephensons Rocket in the early 1800's,
railroads have spread widely across the world, providing the backbone
for the Industrial Revolution through their ability to move very
large amounts of material at very low cost per ton-mile. While railroad
technology has virtually stagnated in the United States in the last
50 years, train technology has continued to evolve in other countries,
leading to high speed passenger trains that operate at 180 mph.
However, further major improvements in railroads are not likely.
The two major new modes of transport to emerge in the 20th Century
were the airplane and the rocket. While flying has been a dream
of mankind for centuries, and was first achieved in lighter than
air balloons by the Montgolfier brothers in 1789, it remained for
the Wright brothers in 1903 to demonstrate practical heavier than
air flight. Following their Kitty Hawk flight, airplanes developed
rapidly, initially for warfare, and then for transport of passengers
and high value freight over long distances, both land and water.
Like the railroads, airplanes have essentially reached a plateau
of performance. Subsonic air transport has reached a maximum speed
capability of ~500 to 600 mph. Supersonic air transport is not economically
practical for the mass market. Subsonic planes have essentially
reached a maximum practical size. The inherent problems of weather
and airport congestion are increasingly causing flight delays, cancellations,
and passenger discomfort. It is very doubtful that there will be
any major improvements in air transport capabilities and costs.
In particular, as energy costs rise, so will the cost of airplane
travel.
Rocket transport, pioneered by Robert Goddard in the early 1900's,
has proved to be of critical importance in modern warfare, space
exploration, and satellite technology and communications. However,
the very high cost of rocket transport - it currently costs approximately
$10,000 per pound to put payloads in orbit, more than their value
if they were made of gold - have kept rockets out of any mass market
for transportation. Efforts are underway to bring down rocket costs
through the use of reusable launch vehicles, but costs will have
to come down by a factor of at least 100 in order to develop a mass
market.
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